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bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin Price Analysis

  • Right now, Bitcoin is hovering around $9,000 and struggling to break through the $10,000 mark
  • On a fundamental level, the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate Bitcoin’s mass adoption
  • Experts all across the industry say that Bitcoin is poised for a meteoric breakout this year or 2021

It’s no secret that Bitcoin has seen some aggressive price movements recently. In this article, we’ll do some Bitcoin price analysis for the last few weeks, what might be causing it, and where we think it might go in the future. Let’s dive right in.

Recent Price Action for Bitcoin

At the time of this writing, July 13th, CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin trading at $9,273 USD, a 1.7% increase over the past 24 hours. But to explain how it got there, let’s go back a few months.

Thursday, March 12, 2020. Forever known as Black Thursday. The COVID-19 pandemic started making its way around North America, and cryptocurrency markets took a nasty tumble alongside traditional markets. There were actually two crashes. The first crash happened roughly between 10:00 am UTC to 11 am UTC. Bitcoin’s price fell from $7,300 to $5,690. The second crash happened between 11 pm UTC and 2:15 am UTC, spilling over into Friday morning. Bitcoin’s price dropped from $5,800 to $3,900.

CoinMarketCap’s Bitcoin chart from February 27, 2020, to July 5, 2020. Note the sharp decline on March 12.

But we can see that Bitcoin has steadily been climbing back ever since. On March 24, just a few weeks after the crash, Bitcoin was hovering around $6,700, up 7% in 24 hours. Part of this was a response to the US government’s proposed $2 trillion coronavirus stimulus package

Monday, May 11, 2020. Bitcoin halving day. For those who don’t know, halving refers to the reward given to Bitcoin miners for processing transactions. It happens every 210,000 blocks mined, which is roughly once every four years. May 11 was the third halving day in Bitcoin’s history, so it was a pretty big deal. The block reward was cut from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

People were both bullish and bearish over Bitcoin’s price in response to the halving, but it was actually fairly uneventful for Bitcoin’s price. The digital currency hovered around $8,500 to $8,700 throughout the day – a far cry from its Black Thursday numbers.

Wednesday, May 20, 2020. Bitcoin’s price dropped 5.2% within an hour. Why? Because 50 BTC were moved from a wallet with no activity since February 2009. This spooked the market because people worry when an old Bitcoin whale is cashing out and therefore crashing the market price. But the price was still around $9,000 by closing.

But let’s look at more recent times, shall we?

The month of June started at an optimistic $9,842 and ended at a paltry $9,120, never touching its June 1 price again. It’s trading volume shrunk from $812,990,990 to $274,835,041 accordingly.

fundamental analysis
Bitcoin’s price chart from Messari from June 11 to July 10.

Bitcoin has been hovering around $9,000 for a while now. The last time it was below that price was on May 25 at $8,855. But even then, it was crossing that threshold a few times in the previous weeks. But Bitcoin is struggling to conquer its Mount Everest – $10,000. 

There was a string of days back in February where it was trading at the price. But it didn’t last long. And that was before the pandemic-induced economic standstill and halving day. Since then, Bitcoin crossed the $10,000 mark on June 2, according to CoinMarketCap. It’s been shying away ever since.

Bitcoin Price Analysis – The Good News

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the cracks in the system. The traditional financial system seems to be breaking down across the world, which bodes well for the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin P2P trading volume peaked back in April in places like Chile, Venezuela, Morocco, and Argentina.

And people have turned to bitcoin as unemployment peaks coupled with businesses no longer accepting cash for fear of spread. Maybe that’s why Bitcoin is still up 30% in 2020.

Another trend driving bitcoin’s popularity is institutional adoption. The digital asset investment firm Grayscale Investments now controls almost 2% of the world’s Bitcoin supply. Even KPMG, one of the big four accounting firms, launched a cryptocurrency management platform called Chain Fusion.

bitcoin price

Also, more women are interested in bitcoin. Grayscale published a report back in December 2019 that found that 43% of investors interested in bitcoin are women. And CoinMarketCap released a report back in April that showed the number of women already in the cryptocurrency industry increased by 43% in the first quarter of 2020.

While this may not be hard Bitcoin news with market-moving potential, it at least helps erase the Bitcoin community’s public image as a boys’ club. It’s also yet another sign of mass adoption.

What the Future Holds for Bitcoin’s Price

The COVID-19 pandemic may have created a frenzy among the crypto community, but investors are generally bullish about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. 

Bloomberg’s June report points to the pandemic and quantitative easing as fueling Bitcoin’s price to rise. They describe Bitcoin as a “resting bull” with the potential to hit a record high of $20,000 this year.

Others agree that a Bitcoin breakout is imminent. Dan Tapeiro, the co-founder of Gold Bullion International, thinks that there is almost $5 trillion of cash sitting in money market accounts that could easily flow into crypto-asset markets and precious metals like gold.

Indeed, gold has been on an upwards trajectory since the pandemic took hold. Bitcoin could soon follow.

Similarly, some believe that Bitcoin’s price is suppressed just like silver was back in 2008. Crypto trader MacnBTC shares this view. The price of silver peaked in 2012. And over the past three weeks, people have traded $150,000 worth of Bitcoin $50K call options for June and December 2021. 

One thing is for sure: things are about to get *a lot* more exciting in this space. Going forward, you can look forward to more in-depth analyses of price movements for major (and minor) crypto assets.

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